Canada's Trade Agreement with the EU

Canada and the EU have now completed the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement known as CETA, requiring all EU member states to endorse it.
The UK can see this as a positive endorsement of the soft exit approach where a trade agreement can be reached without having to give any 'sovereignty' away.

The down-side here is that this deal took seven years of negotiation, nevertheless people are now asking if this could be a template for trade between the EU and BREXIT UK.
The deal with Canada means that most trade tariffs will be waived, allowing the EU to trade freely with Canadian businesses. The cost of the deal will have been some concessions made to the French-speaking Belgian region of Wallonia, who had concerns about competition for their farmers. The details of the deal don't seem to be public yet, but apparently the deal in temporary format will be signed off by all 28 member states over this weekend. Subsequently 38 national assemblies will have to ratify the agreement for it to be come a permanent legal document.

Although in some quarters, this is being heralded as a sign that the UK will be able to negotiate in the same way, the process will be lengthy and we don't know what obstacles will have to be overcome, and what compromises we might have to make.

Hard BREXIT Vs soft BREXIT

Having completed my introductory post regarding Brexit and trying hard not to let it degenerate into a rant..The first question this blog is going to look at is:

 'What are the choices? Hard or Soft?'

So the first point to make is this: Will there be a choice?' and you have to say that it is in itself a question worthy of it's own discussion.
Whether Europe will be open to a 'negotiated' exit or not is difficult to gauge because each member state may have a different stance, which may show us which other states might have their eye on leaving too. But taken as a united body, the noises coming out of Brussels indicate that the UK will have to quit altogether (A 'hard' exit). It is in the interests of the EU to imply at least that there will be no negotiation, as the first step of...well...the negotiation.

I imagine that the other member states will be interested in keeping trade links intact, they won't want to cut the UK off as the UK buys a lot of stuff from member states. Of course, if the EU doesn't negotiate as a whole, then the UK would be free to negotiate individually with each nation separately - which is really not what they want either. I would assume there are measures already in place to stop member states negotiating deals that the EU would disapprove of, but clever lawyers would no doubt be looking for loopholes and looking to circumvent the rules.

So let's assume that there will be something to negotiate...and get back to the 'Hard or Soft issue'.
In a nutshell then, a Hard exit would be to ditch any EU rulings and trade internationally through the World Trade Organisation. No single market access, no interference in UK immigration or indeed any other area of trading or law-making. Your basic 'back to square one' approach.
The Soft option however is more like a EU membership in all but name kind of approach where there will be freedom of movement of goods, people, capital and services pretty much like it is now. I guess the major difference will be in the law-making department, certainly the UK would no longer be subject to the rulings of the European Court of Justice.
The likelihood is that there will be a 'soft' exit where all parties can trade relatively easily - this will suit most parties involved in the discussions.

There remains though, some huge questions around free movement of people - which the BREXIT voters will be keen to point out was a major player in the NO vote. Also, we are being shown how hard-line the EU can be with it's attitude towards Canada's request to be a trade partner. It's difficult to call at this time, it's going to depend on how the big characters in the EU want to play it. We are definitely in 'make it up as you go along' territory, no-one has done this before, and the default position will be 'Hard' exit if the negotiations come up short. However, I can't help feeling there will be some compromise especially with the suspicion that Nissan have been assured access to the single market, following on from similar investment promises from Honda earlier in the year.

How will Brexit change our Economic Outlook?

So, at long last, there is a new 'play-thing' for us amateur economists to pontificate over - BREXIT. It's not like we are completely out of the woods regarding our economy, and I dread to think what our national debt figure actually is - but the focus has certainly shifted off the good ole Credit Crunch lately.
I admit I am late to the table with this one, and had I been paying more attention to this blog, I would have broached the subject earlier, so apologies for that.

Cards on the table then - I was a 'Remainer', and it's not that I have any great love for Europe particularly, but I am against rocking the boat for no good reason other then a vague belief that Europe is somehow holding us back. I am in favour of the 'stronger together' philosophy hence I was in favour of the UK remaining united too. I find it odd that some Scottish politicians could want 'out' of the UK, but 'in' to Europe - but I'm not going to get into that on this blog.....

So the 'Remainers' lost and the Brexiteers won - fair play, we now have a slightly different political landscape to deal with, and some very tricky terrain coming over the horizon. I have moved on (others appear not to be able to do so), but the result was remarkable for a number of reasons.
I will happily accept that broadly speaking, there are some good points that we will gain from gaining a degree of independence from Europe, although I would maintain that we can't be sure that they outweigh the negatives. So I am happy to assert that many well-meaning Brexit supporters actually believe in a solid economic argument.
That said, there are evidently swathes of others who somehow thought that they were voting for some sort of ethnic cleansing to the point where they have been emboldened to shout obscenities at foreigners in the street. These foul types (NOT Brexiteers, but thugs who have seen Brexit as a means to some sort of white supremacy) have been sold a lie by UKIP who have emerged as little more than the BNP in a suit and tie. UKIP (where are they now?) were given an extraordinary amount of exposure considering how little influence they have on anything (Their biggest power base is in the European Parliament!! - you couldn't make it up...). Their mouthpiece Farage (where is he now?) painted a picture of an immigrant-free UK with a well-funded NHS, when he had not the means to bring it about - He 'won' a referendum, not a vote for seats of power. When the party was over, he freely admitted that he was not able to make any of his promises happen - and how could he? He's not even got a seat in Parliament himself - his party is a shambles, their policies are virtually non-existent.

Don't get me wrong please, my disgust at the situation is not because the vote was lost, this is not sour grapes - I am disgusted at how we were led to this point by people with no power and no plan, and now those who could see it was a terrible idea are left having to carry it out. Yet I am not an advocate of a second referendum - that to me would be a nonsense, it would be like Alex Salmond demanding a referendum on the Scots leaving the UK every year until he finally got the result he wanted. No, we must carry it through and make the best of the hand we have dealt ourselves. My real problem is as I mentioned earlier, the belief amongst mindless thugs, that this is a victory for 'Engerlanddd' in post-National Front and post-BNP Britain.

I am thoroughly English and proud of it, yet I would welcome any foreign national genuinely seeking asylum, seeking respite from awful regimes and terrible life-experience, seeking education and work - these individuals enrich and enhance our nation. I am ashamed of the rampant nationalists, and fervently hope their number remains small and insignificant. I am slightly concerned that in post-BREXIT Britain, a line has been crossed where it is becoming acceptable to regard 'foreigners' with suspicion and not a little hatred - Europe has been there before....

Well that's the political rant, I know not everyone will agree with me, and as long as you don't advocate thuggery, I am happy to discuss the pro's and con's of Brexit without getting overly excited. I am looking forward to exploring some of the questions that surround the huge issue of how exactly we are going to extricate ourselves from the European Union.