It's officially over... statistically we are no longer in recession. So why is it that the economy is still repressed, jobs are hard to find and money is hard to come by?
It's simple really, recession is merely a comparative measure - it only looks at productivity compared to last quarter. Now we have been in this recession state for a long time (the longest sustained period of recession for fifty or sixty years), so that means productivity has declined quarter on quarter for an entire year or more. An upturn is good, but a small upturn is actually little better than a leveling out of the bad times - we have sunk so low, but things are not going to get any worse (on average) for now. That scenario whilst generally positive should not be mistaken for a return to how things were - I'll say it again.. it just means that for now, things aren't getting any worse. For a proper recovery, best estimates are in the region of two years or so before we can effectively put this recession behind us and get 'back on track'.
Naturally, some politicians will pick up on the positive signs and try to paint a rosy picture, but the reality of slashed jobs, and static wages is the best that most of us can hope for for the next couple of years. I know I tend to paint a grim picture, but there is good reason. There are people sitting at home wondering why, if the recession is over, they are staring at house repossession and little prospect of work. I don't think it is right that the people who have suffered, and are yet to suffer as a result of this financial crisis should be overlooked in our eagerness to announce the end of recession like it were an event to be heralded. Sure the end of the decline is to be welcomed, I only hope there is enough of an economy left to build productivity back up again.
Related posts:
Is there really a credit crunch?
Is this a recession?
How long will the credit crunch last?
UK reports GDP decline
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